• Categories:Industry News
• Time of issue:2022-05-12

(Summary description)According to IDC's semi-annual Tracking report on global telecom services, global spending on telecom services and pay TV services reached $1,566 billion in 2021, up 1.6 percent year on year. IDC expects global spending on telecoms and pay-TV services to grow 1.4% to $1,588 billion in 2022. In 2021, the global economy recovered rapidly from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This favourable environment has driven additional growth in telecommunications services spending, so that the total value of the global market has grown slightly faster than originally forecast. This trend was shared across all regions of the world: the European, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) market grew 0.2 percentage points faster than forecast in October 2021, asia-pacific grew 0.5 percentage points faster, and the Americas grew 1.0 percentage points faster. Growth was also higher than expected in all technology areas except pay-TV, which is logical because people were able to spend more time outdoors, so some canceled TV packages bought during the lockdown. In its October 2021 report, IDC predicted further recovery (i.e., higher growth rates) in 2022 and 2023. IDC's forecasts have changed, however, due to new developments such as accelerating inflation and a central bank hike in benchmark interest rates that will lead to slower growth in coming years. While the new forecast is still optimistic, IDC expects growth in the first half of this year to be lower than last year. Inflation should have a nominally positive effect on the market: operators will raise rates, customers will pay more, and the total value of the market should grow faster than previously expected. However, inflation also reduces the purchasing power of consumers and businesses, leading to a decline in demand. It is worth noting that the impact of inflation on the telecom services market will expand in the coming years. This is because a large proportion of users have two-year contracts with carriers, which guarantee stable charges until the end of their contracts. But it also means that the impact of inflation is initially higher in markets with a higher proportion of pre-paying customers. The war in Ukraine will have a negative impact on the communication services market in the EMEA region. It will mainly hit the Ukrainian market, which will suffer a sharp decline due to the destruction of network infrastructure and the mass exodus of people from the country. Local demand will come under pressure due to the recession caused by international sanctions and the Russian market will also decline. On the other hand, the war will have a positive impact on the markets of neighbouring countries (Poland, Slovakia and Romania) that host large numbers of Ukrainian refugees. The COVID-19 pandemic is not over yet. The current lockdown in China and the possible emergence of new virus variants in other parts of the world could have an additional impact on the market, mainly in the commercial fixed data services segment. While previous waves of COVID-19 did not have a huge impact on the global telecom services market, related global supply chain disruptions have led to shortages of end users and network equipment, creating new concerns for supply-side players. This is all part of IDC's downward revision. The telecom services industry has remained remarkably stable throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. More than that, it is the backbone of the global economy, allowing people to communicate, play and work from home. "The economic recovery in 2021 is driving growth and leading to higher than expected growth rates, but the same forces that are driving the market up could also be driving the market down," said Kresimir Alic, IDC's global telecom services research director. This market, like any other, is not immune to changing economic trends, and forces like inflation and recession can quickly change the shape of the curve. Inflation has occurred and the economy has started to slow -- so our view on the market remains cautiously positive."