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LC: China pursues economic upgrading and 5G vision despite severe headwinds

LC: China pursues economic upgrading and 5G vision despite severe headwinds

(Summary description)      发布2021财年中国无线基础设施和宏观经济动态。到目前为止,尽管失去了关键芯片组供应和新的大规模的COVID-19封锁,但COVID-19和与5Geopolitics似乎都没有阻碍中国的崛起。LC的2021年全年分析发现,在国内消费支出和商品出口强劲的推动下,中国经济在2021年增长了8.1%。在美国,在COVID-19导致2020年收缩3.4%之后,其GDP在2021年增长了5.7%。这表明中国仍有望在2026-2028年期间超越美国成为世界上最大的经济体,因为COVID-19重置了中美之间的GDP竞赛,给了中国一个助力。       LC首席分析师Stephane Teral表示:“如果没有坚实而广泛的电信基础设施,这种经济增长将永远不会发生;由于5G是中国数字经济的关键推动力,因此迄今为止中国的5G部署保持稳定。然而,2022年开始时出现了巨大的逆风,这些逆风正在放缓中国经济并损害其5.5%的年度GDP增长计划:政府对科技、金融和辅导公司开始采取严厉措施,并收紧对房地产开发商的控制。”       自2009年的重大电信重组以来,截至2021年12月底,中国三大运营商(即中国移动、中国联通和中国电信)已经部署了996万个移动基站(包括2G/3G/4G/5G),相比2020年底时的931万,新增65万。其中,5G基站总数达到142万,相比2020年底的77万,新增65万。移动用户数超过16亿,其中5G用户接近5.5亿。       中国是孤立的且自力更生的,并将世界分为两个势力范围:东方和西方,一种地缘政治而不是地理标签上的定义。在东方,中国是唯一一个正在崛起的国家,而西方增长缓慢,但在GDP方面要大得多,拥有巨额财富和研发预算。       5G,以及很快的6G,仍然是中国经济从工业向服务业转变的核心。政府表示,5G应用案例超万个,覆盖农业、钢铁、电力、矿业等国民经济22个行业及相关领域。       受4G LTE拖累,中国RAN市场同比下降12%,但华为和中兴通讯以爱立信和诺基亚为代价,增加了自己的市场份额;2021年,它们的市场份额总和超过80%。       LC预计,2022年中国的5G表现将与去年和2020年大致相同。从中期和长期来看,LC的模型显示,中国到2026年将启动6G。

LC: China pursues economic upgrading and 5G vision despite severe headwinds

(Summary description)      发布2021财年中国无线基础设施和宏观经济动态。到目前为止,尽管失去了关键芯片组供应和新的大规模的COVID-19封锁,但COVID-19和与5Geopolitics似乎都没有阻碍中国的崛起。LC的2021年全年分析发现,在国内消费支出和商品出口强劲的推动下,中国经济在2021年增长了8.1%。在美国,在COVID-19导致2020年收缩3.4%之后,其GDP在2021年增长了5.7%。这表明中国仍有望在2026-2028年期间超越美国成为世界上最大的经济体,因为COVID-19重置了中美之间的GDP竞赛,给了中国一个助力。

      LC首席分析师Stephane Teral表示:“如果没有坚实而广泛的电信基础设施,这种经济增长将永远不会发生;由于5G是中国数字经济的关键推动力,因此迄今为止中国的5G部署保持稳定。然而,2022年开始时出现了巨大的逆风,这些逆风正在放缓中国经济并损害其5.5%的年度GDP增长计划:政府对科技、金融和辅导公司开始采取严厉措施,并收紧对房地产开发商的控制。”

      自2009年的重大电信重组以来,截至2021年12月底,中国三大运营商(即中国移动、中国联通和中国电信)已经部署了996万个移动基站(包括2G/3G/4G/5G),相比2020年底时的931万,新增65万。其中,5G基站总数达到142万,相比2020年底的77万,新增65万。移动用户数超过16亿,其中5G用户接近5.5亿。



      中国是孤立的且自力更生的,并将世界分为两个势力范围:东方和西方,一种地缘政治而不是地理标签上的定义。在东方,中国是唯一一个正在崛起的国家,而西方增长缓慢,但在GDP方面要大得多,拥有巨额财富和研发预算。

      5G,以及很快的6G,仍然是中国经济从工业向服务业转变的核心。政府表示,5G应用案例超万个,覆盖农业、钢铁、电力、矿业等国民经济22个行业及相关领域。

      受4G LTE拖累,中国RAN市场同比下降12%,但华为和中兴通讯以爱立信和诺基亚为代价,增加了自己的市场份额;2021年,它们的市场份额总和超过80%。

      LC预计,2022年中国的5G表现将与去年和2020年大致相同。从中期和长期来看,LC的模型显示,中国到2026年将启动6G。

Information

Release wireless infrastructure and macroeconomic trends in China for fiscal year 2021. So far, despite the loss of a critical chipset supply and a new massive COVID-19 blockade, neither COVID-19 nor 5Geopolitics seems to have hindered the rise of China. LC's full-year 2021 analysis found that China's economy grew 8.1 percent in 2021, driven by strong domestic consumer spending and goods exports. In the United States, GDP grew by 5.7% in 2021, after COVID-19 caused a 3.4% contraction in 2020. This suggests That China is still on track to overtake the US as the world's largest economy in 2026-2028, as COVID-19 resets the GDP race between China and the US, giving China a boost 25G SFP28 Duplex.

Stephane Teral, LC principal analyst, said: "This economic growth would never have happened without a solid and extensive telecommunications infrastructure; As 5G is a key driver of China's digital economy, the country's 5G deployment has so far remained stable. However, 2022 begins with big headwinds that are slowing China's economy and hurting its 5.5% annual GDP growth plan: the government is cracking down on tech, finance and tutoring companies, and tightening controls on property developers 25G SFP28 Duplex."

Since the major telecom restructuring in 2009, China's three major operators (China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom) had deployed 9.96 million mobile base stations (including 2G/3G/4G/5G) by the end of December 2021, an increase of 650,000 from 9.31 million at the end of 2020. Among them, the total number of 5G base stations reached 1.42 million, an increase of 650,000 from 770,000 at the end of 2020. There are more than 1.6 billion mobile users, including nearly 550 million 5G users 25G SFP28 Duplex.

China is isolated and self-reliant and divides the world into two spheres of influence: East and West, a definition defined by geopolitics rather than geo-labelling. In the East, China is the only country that is rising, while the West is slow growing but much bigger in TERMS of GDP, with huge wealth and r&d budgets.

5G, and soon 6G, remains central to China's shift from industry to services. According to the government, there are more than 10,000 5G applications, covering 22 industries and related sectors of the national economy, including agriculture, steel, power and mining 25G SFP28 Duplex.

The RAN market in China fell 12 per cent year-on-year, dragged down by 4G LTE, but Huawei and ZTE increased their market share at the expense of Ericsson and Nokia; In 2021, their combined market share is more than 80%.

LC expects China's 5G performance in 2022 to be roughly the same as last year and 2020. In the medium and long term, LC's models suggest That China will launch 6G by 2026 25G SFP28 Duplex.

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