• Categories:Industry News
• Time of issue:2022-05-06

(Summary description)LightCounting has released its latest market forecast. LightCounting notes that the optical communications industry enters 2020 with very strong momentum. Demand for DWDM, Ethernet, and wireless prefab connections surged at the end of 2019, while demand for faster, more ubiquitous, and more reliable networks intensified in 2020 and 2021 as people moved to work and study from home due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While supply chain shortages continue, the industry was able to largely overcome these issues, with the optical devices and modules market Posting strong growth of 25G SFP28 Duplex in 2020 and 2021. LightCounting sees the optical module market growing 9% in 2021 and 17% in 2020, followed by another year of strong revenue growth (estimated 17%) in 2022. Demand for optical components is strong in all segments, and continued bottlenecks in the global supply chain may have created some additional demand (overordering) and certainly moderated price declines, contributing to higher than expected sales growth in 2021, so we are raising our forecast for 2022-2027, as shown below for 25G SFP28 Duplex. The latest forecast predicts 12 percent cagR from 2022 to 2027, not much different from the 13 percent CAGR forecast in October 2021. Strong sales of DWDM and Ethernet optical devices accounted for most of last year's growth, and these segments are expected to lead growth in 2022-2027. Optical interconnection sales, primarily active fiber Optic cable (AOC), will also grow at a double-digit (10%) CAGR over the next five years. Wireless prequels are a soft area, with lower prices combined with cyclical declines in unit shipments leading to negative sales growth. It's worth noting that LightCounting changes some of the rules of market forecasting. In DWDM, the number of ports for pluggable optical modules is no longer predicted separately. In the FTTx area, collect more comprehensive shipment volume (OLT and ONU) data. The Ethernet forecast rule was updated in March 2022 and has not changed since then, with the figure higher than the October 2021 forecast due to increased shipments of 400G, 800G and 1.6T products.